Commentary
'Slava Ukraini!' Why You Should Care
- by Dave Morgan , Featured Contributor, December 28, 2023
Slava Ukraini! “Victory to Ukraine” is critical and matters to all of us.
For sure, you read less of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine these days. Our press cycles, and our news’ attention, is tuned for the “latest thing,” and Ukraine hasn’t been that since Hamas’ atrocities on innocent civilians in Gaza on Oct. 7, and the focus on domestic issues in the U.S., with partisan divisions in Washington and early candidate and court skirmishes in advance of next year’s Presidential election.
Those same “what have you done lately” attention cycles had many of us expecting a quick Ukraine victory — in weeks or months — after it launched a counteroffensive this past summer. Forget that a nation with barely 30 million people within its currently controlled borders was trying to repel the world’s second most powerful military. Innumerable, military-fluent talking heads on TV were telling us that Crimea could be back in Ukraine’s hands by Christmas.
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Now is our time to confront reality, a reality that the Ukrainian people have known for a long time: This war will not end quickly.
The Russians won’t be evicted from Ukraine until they have wasted the lives of hundreds of thousands more young Russian conscripts in their horrific human wave attacks, and, in their terrorist-like attacks, killed or injured hundreds of thousands more Ukrainians, especially civilians.
Just this week, Russian fired barrages of missiles at the Kherson train station, where 140 civilians were waiting to board a special evacuation train to help them escape a day-long barrage of Russian artillery and missiles on the city’s civilian infrastructure, designed to destroy its power grid and capacity to provide heat for homes this winter.
This is not just a winnable war for Ukraine. This is a war that WILL be won by Ukraine and its allies, and the sooner the U.S. recommits its full economic and military support for Ukraine, the sooner the war will be won, the fewer soldiers and innocent civilians will die, and the less likely that the U.S. and the world’s economies will be dragged down by the conflict.
Remember: Russia, China, Iran and North Korea don’t need Russia to win the war. All they need is for the Ukrainian victory to take a long time to happen.
What do they worry about? That the U.S. recommits its full economic and military support for Ukraine immediately.
So far, for just $75 billion in military aid (5% of the U.S. military budget), we have already helped destroy 50% of Russia’s total pre-war capabilities in soldiers, officers, aircraft, tanks, missiles, ammunition, etc. -- a goal we had been spending trillions of dollars over the past decades to achieve. As the late Margaret Thatcher would have reminded us, this is not the time to get “wobbly.”
And this is the greatest military investment bargain the U.S. has ever made. A large portion of U.S. military aid has been weapons systems from old stockpiles, like 30+-year-old, already obsolete Bradley fighting vehicles and Abrams tanks. We have helped destroy one-half of Russia’s military without putting any U.S. service members' lives on the line. It is brave Ukrainians who are dying, not Americans.
If the U.S. doesn’t recommence its aid in a full-scale way, some of what will happen over the next decade is quite predictable.
Russia axis grows. Russia, China, Iran and North Korea will be emboldened, and we will see more incursions and interventions from these countries with more audacity and less restraint. The Balkans, Poland, Lithuania, Estonia and Nordics will face aggression. China will tighten its noose on Taiwan, the Philippines and others in Asia. Iran will continue to foment terrorism and genocide, just it as has recently in Syria, Iraq and Gaza. North Korea will continue to harass South Korea and Japan with nuclear weapons and the rest of the world with its ransomware and cyberattacks.
Fence-sitters choose the other side. India and others on the geopolitical fence, which include most of Africa, Southeast Asia, Latin America and the Middle East, will hedge their bets, move away from the U.S. economic sphere and buy fewer goods and services from the U.S. We will lose the world’s growth markets.
The U.S. economy goes backwards. The U.S. is making great strides to rebuild its economy for a digital age, with global manufacturing and supply chains and with less dependency on goods from China and energy from the Middle East. Continuing on this path will mean job growth in the U.S, particularly,in areas like next generation on-share manufacturing, which is so critical for the U.S. economy and work force long-term. Take away growth markets and you take away U.S. economic growth.
Bad will triumph over good. Supporting Ukraine in its war against Russian aggression and genocide (don’t forget that Russia has already forcibly taken more than 20,000 Ukrainian children to be “adopted” re-educated in Russia) isn’t just the smart thing to do, it is the right thing to do.
What can you do to help? First, care. Second, act. Third, don’t stop caring and acting.
Care and act by speaking up: to your friends, colleagues, acquaintances, social media circles. Don’t let the news cycle pass Ukraine by.
Care and act by showing your support: put the Ukrainian colors on your home, apartment, workplace, clothing, wrists. Everyone needs to know, particularly those in Ukraine, that the support is still there and unwavering.
Care and act by demanding action from your elected officials. All politics is local. We have big elections this coming year. Make sure that your politicians (all of them) know that you are watching them on this issue. If they fence-sit or choose partisan bickering, or pretend that Ukraine doesn’t matter to U.S. ideals and jobs, let them know that you’ll help vote them out.
Slava Ukraini! Please care. Please act.
Dave, How do you define a Ukraine "victory"?
Arthur, I leave it to the Ukrainian government and it's people to set that definition. At this point, it almost certainly includes restoration of 2014 borders, reparations to Ukraine, accountability for war crimes, no limitations on Ukraine treaties or membership in EU and NATO.
Dave, I'm a very strong backer of Ukraine and our efforts to support it against Putin's naked aggression. However, the list of demands you cited as the definition of a Ukrainain "victory" seem very unrealistic at this point---especially with large sectors of our own public plus many in the GOP seemingly favoring a cave in by Ukraine ---coupled with the all-to-evident inability of Biden to motivate the public in favor of his policies.
Sadly, I fear that a somewhat different "peace deal" may be forced on Ukraine's current leaders by "the West" with its weak leadership and the short attention spans of its publics--namely that Putin keeps most of what he has taken and in exchange no NATO for Ukraine. I hope that I'm wrong---but look at our own track record in wars where we sided with one side against "the enemy"----In Viet Nam we cut and ran, leaving our allies---millions of them---- to fend for themselves; in Syria we had the very important help of the Kurds against ISIS and then we let Turkey attack the Kurds and take their lands on its borders; and what about Afghanistan where, again, we cut and ran rather than leaving a relatively small force to support an admittedly corrupt but sort of "democratic" government. Hopefully we will do better this time---but?
Ed, as you might expect, we see this similarly and I share your fears. Unfortunately, settling for a victory that is anything less, enables Putin a big victory and reward for his invasion and sets him up to make moves on others as soon as he rearms, which will happen quickly given the $135B he gets a year from Europe for fossil fuels. Moldova will go down quickly and he'll start nibbling at Poland and Finland once he has that tuck in done. Plus, he will continue to undermine Ukraine and work on extending borders in Donetsk.
Dave, even if a" compromise" peace deal along the lines I outlined is forced on Ukraine by The West I think that both Putin and Zelensky are toast once hostilities cease. In the latter case, the key is what kind of leader---or government---replaces Putin. If it's a hard liner, then we are in for trouble long term. However, I doubt that Russia will dare to invade anyone for some time after its disastrous experience in Ukraine---the people probably wont stand for it and the military isn't ready---to put it mildly.
As for Zelensky---who I like---I wouldn't be surprised if the Ukrainian people vote him out of office---just as was done to Churchill after Hitler killed himself in 1945---despite Winnie's heroic leadership in the fight against the Nazis.
The basic problem that The West faces is inconsistant leadership by the U.S. and a series of very poor residents of The White House---from both parties. As a result every time a new POTUS takes over everything the last POTUS advocated is abandoned or completely turned around. Result: a total lack of sane, long term policies and their execution. Our enemies---Russia, Iran and China ---all dictatorships----all have long term goals and are consistent about attaining them. That's really worrysome.
Ed, for sure, what is needed most now is leadership. Hopefully, Biden can get the supplemental aid package for Ukraine done by January 19, and that we will see more leadership emerge in Europe who aren't afraid of Putin and higher energy prices. Yes, we might see Zelensky emerge post-war as president, but I doubt he or anyone else would complain if the result was a definitive Ukraine victory. Like Churchill, he will have deserved some time off. Without a doubt, his leadership is among the best the world has ever seen, and Ukraine is able to see an eventual victory because of it.
Dave & Ed, I support the Ukraine in halting the aggression of Putin, and I support approving the supplemental aid package.
I see the most important next step is the negotiation of a just and sustainable peace. The killing...and the devastating destruction of Ukraine must stop.
Agree with Ed Papazian that inconsistent U.S. leadership is a problem...especially with our proclivity for militaristic approaches to conflict resolutions rather than seeking diplomatic solutions. With our proclivity to militaristic approaches, you need an enemy or even better, multiple enemies...with evil leaders,
"Victory" is in firmly stopping Putin's aggression, and that has been accomplished with Ukraine courage/determination and our support. Now is the time to begin to take stepping stones on the path to peace. First step...Reset of the Black Sea Grain Initiative, a humanitarian cause, that mutually beneficial to Ukraine and Russia. Follow-up steps can be "Pauses" for other humanitarian reasons without conceding on the political issues that you have outlined as "Victory." These political issues require skilled negotiation. All wars end in surrender or negotiations. Let's get the negotiations started!
Arthur, agreed that finding sustainable peace is paramount. Getting there isn't going to be easy. Ukraine isn't likely to trust any Putin promises, irrespective of where borders are set, without lots or reparations and unless European & US troops in country to ensure it. That will be a hard one for all do deal with unless Putin fully on back foot and has few choices and little leverage.
Dave, Take a look at our Code Blue Ukraine initiative at www.thunderhouse.org. If interested in following up on this conversation, send me your email address. art@thunderhouse.org.