Commentary
Get Ready for the Great Video Unbundling
- by Jim Louderback , September 21, 2011
But video, today, remains mostly bound to its cable, broadcast and satellite transports. Most households in the US today subscribe to a multichannel offering that delivers the transport, and the channel bundle (mostly unwatched) as part of a monolithic service. But that's all going to change.
Within the next five years, most of the video we consume will be delivered over an open IP network, not via proprietary cable, satellite or even broadcast streams. But even though our favorite shows will be delivered mostly on-demand, we'll still have bundles of services to reckon with - it'll just be arbitraged in new ways.
Five super premium video-channel bundles will emerge, offering a broad set of networks and shows that appeal to guys, gals and kids. These come from the usual suspects: Viacom, Time Warner, ABC/Disney, NBC/Comcast and Fox. As TV Everywhere matures, these five companies will begin to build direct billing relationships with consumers, and will deliver a mostly on-demand service over traditional broadband networks - with live sports, news and other events serving as anchors.
Next we'll have a handful of premium independent channels that offer super-high quality programming on demand. Netflix is clearly one of these, HBO is well positioned to be the second. What about Blockbuster, Hulu, Amazon, Showtime and EPIX? I don't see any of these today building franchises like Netflix and HBO, but it's early and the market's wide open.
Finally, we'll see a handful of premium independent bundles that pull together more targeted programming for specific demographic.
But what about YouTube? Google's video arm clearly wants to be a premium video-channel bundle that sits alongside Viacom, ABC and the others. They want to be the Mall of America for video, with folks like us and the other independents as anchor tenants.
In the end it's all about shelf space. All of us are racing to build a session-shifting experience that lives as an icon across everything from the smallest smart-phone to the biggest smart TV. Because in the next five years if it's a glowing rectangle, then it is a video consumption device - or what we used to call a TV.
Jim Louderback is CEO of Revision3
Great Insight one additional point is how is this all going to be monetized. I offer Transmedia Brandcasting as the monetization of streaming video providing viewers with the instant ability to Love it, Click it & Buy it. I offer my recent Keynote Presentation for I-Strategy Global Media Conference Atlanta as what is coming from us small guys trying to create jobs in America in Entertainment. http://www.slideshare.net/iStrategyConference/wcntv-istrategy-atlanta
Jim, I used to be a believer, but now I'm having my doubts. While I believe that on demand online viewing will continue to grow, your prediction that it will overtake broadcast TV in the next 5 years I think is too ambitious. Folks like their lean back boob tube experience just too much to give it up completely. Think about the amount of population that loves to veg out in front of the TV with a pint of Ben and Jerrys. They don't want to search. And with these "lean back" apps now emerging, it's a neat idea, but force me to watch the same ad twice in one sitting and I'm turning it off! They have to improve dramatically before it works for me. A Pandora style TV viewer will probably be the killer app.