• by Gavin O'Malley  @mp_gavin, November 14, 2012

To the dismay of resistant publishers and marketers, real-time bidding will account for 13% of all U.S. display ad spending this year -- more than tripling since 2010.
 
That’s according to new estimates from eMarketer, which only expects RTB to gain momentum in the coming years as more media buyers and publishers warm to its efficiencies.
 
This year, the overall U.S. display ad market will grow 21.5% to $15 billion from $12.3 billion in 2011, eMarketer projected in September. Growth in RTB display ad spending, by comparison, is expected to reach 98% in 2012.
 
As such, eMarketer forecasts that RTB ad spending will reach $1.9 billion in 2012 as both publishers and media buyers continue to adopt RTB technology.
 
Beyond 2013, those growth rates will likely slow as the programmatic buying landscape settles and matures, and awareness and general understanding of RTB technology becomes ubiquitous.
 
Still, by 2016, U.S. RTB ad spending will climb to $7.1 billion, according to eMarketer.
 
Meanwhile, the media researcher said it is confident that programmatic buying for mobile and video will contribute significantly to future RTB ad-spending growth -- but for now, those ad types will account for relatively small shares of overall RTB dollars.
 
As media buyers increasingly invest in RTB and major publishers like Facebook continue to enter the market, eMarketer forecasts 72.4% growth in U.S. RTB ad spending for 2013.
 
According to the research firm, there are four key influences that will determine the growth of RTB: the maturation of Facebook’s ad exchange, FBX; an expected influx of video and mobile inventory; an anticipated greater availability of premium ad inventory; and an overarching demand for better transparency for all of digital display.
 
FBX only came out of beta testing in September 2012, and although Facebook spoke positively about the exchange’s performance in its third-quarter earnings call, company COO Sheryl Sandberg described FBX’s current revenue impact as “small.”
 
Even slight adoption on the part of Facebook advertisers could yield significant growth for the real-time buying market, according to eMarketer, considering that Facebook will have an estimated 15% share of total U.S. display ad spending in 2013.

The firm develops its forecast through an analysis of estimates from other research firms, along with survey results from brands, agencies and media publishers, and digital and mobile ad-spending trends.