While TV will remain advertising’s No. 1 medium, digital -- principally online display and search -- will account for one-fifth of all ad spending next year, according to new projections released this morning by Aegis Group’s Carat unit. The forecast, which calls for the global ad economy to expand 3.7% this year, represents a significant downgrade from Carat’s previous projections in August 2012, when Carat projected ad spending would increase 5.1% in 2013. On the bright side, Carat projects worldwide ad spending will rise 5.0% in 2014, led by double-digit increases in Latin America, Russia, and a resurgence in North America and the U.K.

 

“Positive growth is forecast across all markets and regions in 2014, including Western Europe which, following two consecutive years of decline is expected to return to growth as it benefits from the increase in multi-platform opportunities and the resulting increase in digital spend,” reads the agency’s new forecast, which is being released just as parent Aegis is poised to merge with Japanese advertising and media conglomerate Dentsu.

 

Aegis chief Jerry Buhlmann characterized the global advertising marketplace as a “two-speed” economy, which appears to be true both geographically and in terms of media platforms, with digital giving all markets their greatest impetus.

 

“As expected, the trend of audiences moving online continues and with digital advertising comes greater accountability,” Buhlmann stated, adding: “So while television remains the dominant medium it is clear that the advertising businesses which can innovate and implement truly cross-platform converged communication plans, combining online and offline campaigns.”

 

Carat estimates that digital’s share of global ad spending has been expanding 2% each year, and based on that rate, predicts it will account for more than 20% of all global advertising by 2014.

 

The agency noted that in some key European markets -- including the U.K., the Netherlands and Sweden -- digital already is the dominant ad medium.