• by Erik Sass , Staff Writer @eriksass1, January 13, 2015

Just as the first wave of the Internet transformed the developed world in areas spanning media, science, art and commerce, the second wave promises to be equally significant, as mobile devices allow hundreds of millions of people in the developing world to get online without needing desktop computers or wired Internet connections.

This week the Internet & Mobile Association of India released a report showing that the total number of mobile Internet users in India had reached 173 million at the end of 2014, and projecting that number to increase to 213 million by the middle of this year. The latter figure represents 17% of the Indian population. The number of users in urban areas will increase to 160 million by June 2015, while the number in rural areas will reach 53 million, up 33% from the end of 2014.

Meanwhile, the share of their mobile bill average Indian users spend on mobile Internet access is set to increase from 45% in 2014 to 54% this year. And by the middle of the year, mobile Internet will account for 60% of India’s total 354 million Internet connections. At that point, India will be a bigger Internet market than the U.S., second only to China in the world.

Thanks in large part to increasing mobile Internet penetration, Indian e-commerce sales will jump from $3.1 billion in 2013 to $22 billion in 2018, according to a forecast from brokerage CLSA. Mobile payments are also set to grow; this week LoopPay announced that it will be entering the Indian market with its payment system, which makes mobile phones compatible with traditional credit card readers.

Similarly, in Sub-Saharan Africa, mobile Internet penetration will increase from 17% of the population in 2014 to 37% by 2020, according to a forecast from GSMA. Africa is already a leader in mobile transfers and payments thanks to systems like M-Pesa, and Gartner forecasts the continent’s total mobile transaction volume will reach $160 billion by next year.   

Overall, China remains the world’s biggest mobile Internet market by a large margin, with 389 million smartphones shipped last year alone, including 171 million 4G handsets. A forecast from eMarketer puts the total number of smartphone users in China at 574 million this year, reaching 700 million by 2018 (over half the country’s population). In 2013, IE Market Research predicted the total volume of mobile commerce in China to reach $41 billion by 2016.