TV Stations To Post 12.6% Rise In 2016 Ad Revs; 13.3% Gain In Online/Digital

by Wayne Friedman , May 9, 2016

In the midst of a big election year -- and Summer Olympics to come -- U.S. TV stations are poised to see strong double-digit percentage rises in over-the-air advertising revenues in 2016.

TV station advisor BIA/Kelsey forecasts this to total $20.8 billion, up 12.1% over 2015. By way of comparison, BIA/Kelsey says local TV over-the-air revenues sank 7.2% in 2015 versus 2014.

This year, local TV stations' digital/online revenues will rise by around the same rate as-over-the air TV -- up 13.3% to $1.0 billion.

During the last Presidential election year -- 2012 -- local TV stations were estimated to have taken in $20.3 billion in over-the-air advertising (13.4% over 2011) and $600 million in online/digital advertising (a 20% hike over 2011).

BIA/Kelsey says this year, East Coast TV stations will see an 11.1% gain, versus a 7.9% decrease in 2015. Southern TV markets will rise 12.6% in 2016; after a 6.0% decline last year. Western TV stations will grow 11.9% versus a 9.6% fall in 2015.

Midwest markets will see the greatest climb -- up 14.6% versus a 7.2% drop a year ago. Southwest markets will rise the least -- up 8.4% in 2016. Southwest TV stations witnessed the smallest decline of any region in 2015 -- down 4.5%

Mark Fratrik, senior vice president and chief economist, BIA/Kelsey, stated: "The election and the economy, driven by stronger employment figures and continuing low interest rates, are helping push local TV ad revenues above expectations this year."

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4 comments about "TV Stations To Post 12.6% Rise In 2016 Ad Revs; 13.3% Gain In Online/Digital".

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Douglas Ferguson from College of Charleston, May 10, 2016 at 9:55 a.m.
Election and Olympics will create a very shiny bubble this year, no doubt. One wonders how much better TV stations would be doing in 2016 without all the new media competition for eyeballs, but they will enjoy near-record revenues. Meanwhile, new data show that Millennials are abandoning legacy media in droves. Ever notice how an incandescent light bulb sometimes glows extra bright right before it pops?
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Ed Papazian from Media Dynamics, May 10, 2016 at 10:27 a.m.

Douglas, except for off-network sitcoms that run on independent stations, your typical network affiliate has not relied on millennials for decades. Their main audience, especially for news, is adults aged 50+.

Leonard Zachary from T___n__, May 10, 2016 at 12:54 p.m.

Ed you made the case for a legacy model like the yellow pages.

Doug Garnett from Protonik, LLC replied, May 10, 2016 at 5:01 p.m.

Not necessarily, Leonard. As millennial age their habits will change dramatically. I didn't sign up for Cable until long after it was available - when I was in my 30's. We need to remember that EVERY generation has been claimed to be "entirely different" and no generation turns out to be different in too many important ways. Millennial are beginning families, buying houses - all the things that lead to more traditional media consumption. I'm mystified why thinking can't accept that people grow and change in fairly predictable generational ways...