• by Sarah Mahoney , Staff Writer @mahoney_sarah, October 11, 2023

The timing of Amazon’s second shopping event this year seems to have precisely the intended impact: It’s kicking off earlier holiday shopping behavior.

New research from Mintel reports that 44% of those who will celebrate the winter holidays plan to do some of their holiday shopping during pre-season sales events, including Amazon Prime Big Deal Days. Many other retailers, led by Walmart and Target, have followed Amazon with large October sales events.

And while Mintel is forecasting a 5.4% increase in holiday spending, consumers say they are in an especially frugal mindset.

About 60% say they want to spend the least amount of money possible this year, which means they’re also planning on shopping on other “deal” days. For example, 45% of winter holiday shoppers intend to shop during Black Friday or Cyber Monday.

Consumers are also increasingly open to buying used gifts, with 48% saying they are considering shopping for pre-owned merchandise. Among Gen Z shoppers, 38% may shop at thrift or consignment stores.

But they’re also happy about making merry, with 62% saying they are especially excited to attend more in-person events and gatherings.

Mintel predicts this year's winter holiday sales will grow 5.4% to $1.07 trillion.

“While the inflation rate may be cooling from peak highs, consumers are still feeling the squeeze of economic pressures,” says Brittany Steiger, Mintel’s retail and ecommerce analyst, in the report.

“To remain competitive, retailers must position sales and promotions throughout the season and consider personalized deals tailored to consumers’ preferences.”

Bankrate’s research also detects that level of caution, which is fueling earlier shopping this year.

"A couple of years ago, early holiday shopping was all about the supply chain mess,” writes Ted Rossman, Bankrate’s senior industry analyst, in his outlook. “There was a feeling that if you didn’t order early, you might not get your items in time for the holiday. Now, I think the motivation is more financial. A third of holiday shoppers expect inflation to impact their buying habits, and 25% are stressed about the cost of holiday shopping."

Rossman also notes people’s thriftiness. “For instance, 87% told us they’re looking for ways to save money, led by purchasing fewer items and seeking more coupons, discounts and sales,” he adds.

As a result, Bankrate is predicting a much smaller gain than Mintel and other forecasts, with growth of about 2%, falling short of inflation.