• by Wayne Friedman , October 23, 2012

Although low-cost over-the-top TV services continue to gain steam, a somewhat older multichannel TV provider will continue to grow.

Dallas-based media researcher Parks Associates says IPTV subscribers will more than double in five years to some 18 million from the current subscriber base of 8.8 million. This will give the business an 18% share.

As a result, the two other multichannel TV services will decline -- cable industry share will fall to 52% from 60%, and satellite will decline to 30% from 35% by 2017. This will leave cable with 56.1 million subscribers in five years, and satellite businesses with around 30 million.

"The era of huge subscriber gains in the U.S. pay-TV market is over," stated Jim O'Neill, research analyst of Parks Associates. "Cable TV providers are losing subscribers to IPTV services from AT&T, Verizon and CenturyLink."

He adds: "Satellite providers also will experience subscriber loss as telcos continue to expand fiber footprints, leverage pricing on triple- and quad-play bundles, and offer advanced TV Everywhere products. Going forward, subscriber retention will become the focus for cable and satellite providers."

Parks Associates says large cable operators such as Comcast and Time Warner Cable are already shifting their messaging and packages to emphasize their high-speed services. Another major factor is Google, as a new possible market-making force, which is starting up Google Fiber in Kansas City.

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