• by Jack Loechner , Staff Writer @mp_research, November 27, 2013

According to the BIA/Kelsey updated Annual U.S. Local Media Forecast, total U.S. local media ad revenues are expected to grow from $132.9 billion in 2013 to $151.5 billion in 2017, representing a 2.8% compound annual growth rate, growing faster than the firm originally forecast earlier this year.

Faster growth in online/digital advertising revenues will drive that faster overall growth, increasing at a 13.8 percent CAGR from $26.5 billion in 2013 to $44.5 billion in 2017. That compares with a CAGR of 0.1 percent during the same period for traditional advertising revenues, which will remain flat, growing slightly from $106.4 billion in 2013 to $107 billion in 2017.

Local Media Ad Spend Forecast (2012-2017;  $ in Billions)
Year	Total Local Ad Spend	Traditional Media	Online/Digital Media
2012	$132.0	$108.9	$23.1
2013	132.9	106.4	26.5
2014	137.5	106.8	30.7
2015	141.0	105.7	35.3
2016	147.2	107.5	39.7
2017	151.5	107.0	44.5
Source:  BIA/Kelsey, November 2013 (Steady shift toward digital media; Total media CAGR  2.8%, Traditional  0.1%, Online/digital  13.8%)

Mark Fratrik, chief economist, BIA/Kelsey, says “… a range of factors will drive local ad revenues… through the end of the forecast period… slightly improving U.S. economy, positive outlook by investors, the 2014 elections and Olympics, as well as ad spending around the Affordable Health Care Act… “

Location targeted mobile advertising revenues, which are growing at a faster pace than overall mobile advertising, will increase from $2.9 billion in 2013 to $10.8 billion in 2017, accounting for 52 percent of overall U.S. mobile ad spending in 2017. Total mobile ad spending will grow from $7 billion in 2013 to $20.7 billion in 2017.

Local vs. National Ad Spend in Mobile (US$ in Billions)
Year	Total Mobile	Location Targeted	Non-location Targeted
2012	$3.65	$1.36	$2.29
2013	7.03	2.85	4.18
2014	10.15	4.35	5.80
2015	13.94	6.60	7.34
2016	17.22	8.45	8.76
2017	20.68	10.81	9.87
Source:  BIA/Kelsey, November 2013

In addition the forecast breaks out the share of ad revenues attributed to print and over-the-air (O-T-A) versus online/digital for Yellow Pages, newspapers, television and radio. The following represent individual media segment shares of the overall local media market by 2017:

• Newspapers Print:   decreasing to 9.1%
• Newspapers Online/Digital:   remaining steady at 2.4%
• Yellow Pages Print:   decreasing to 1.5%
• Yellow Pages Digital/Online:   increasing to 1.9%
• Radio O-T-A:   decreasing slightly to 10.6%
• Radio Online/Digital:   growing to 0.5%
• TV O-T-A:   decreasing slightly to 14.6%
• TV Online/Digital:   growing to 0.7%

For additional information from BIA/Kelsey, please visit here.