Commentary

Strategy: Wait For All Ratings - And Lose Some Program Buzz?

by Wayne Friedman , Staff Writer, October 8, 2015

Happy with the new broadcast TV season and your new shows? Or do you need to wait three days? Maybe seven? Or perhaps 35, to find out how popular the shows really are?

For many TV columnists, business and otherwise, this has been a weak 2015-2016 season so far. No new shows have grabbed any big interest, and even the still-high-flying “Empire” from Fox a year ago (though down a bit from its big numbers last spring) hasn’t churned up any buzz.

Cable? We had a nice media bump from the prequel “Fear The Walking Dead” on AMC this past summer. Even then the just concluded finale of the show posted a modest (by AMC’s “Walking Dead” standards) 3.4 rating among 18-49 viewers.

TV network executives have been bracing for the fall season, pushing the TV business press to write about live plus whatever time-shifting metric, and/or digital viewing metric you like -- three, seven, 35 days, or beyond.

To be fair, it isn’t all the TV executives' fault. Plenty of viewing of their TV shows -- in the digital space and other platforms -- does indeed exist. But the factor of time viewing delay seems to be killing the next-day digital water cooler effect. Binge viewing and spoiler alerts are making things more complex.

TV Watch has long suggested TV programs' value should be expressed in something real -- a more accessible currency for TV business executives and customers: dollars. Specifically, advertising dollars.

From September 3 through October 6, “Big Bang Theory” posted $50.5 million in national advertising revenues, according to iSpot.tv estimated data. “The Voice” pulled in $31.7 million; and “Modern Family”, $27.4 million over the time period. This data includes all national advertising airings, running originals on a broadcast network, as well as reruns on cable and/or U.S. station syndication.

TV networks want to abandon the whole next day “overnight” TV viewing data. But will we really be left in a “waiting period” to account for viewing of a particular piece of video -- after a week, after a month?

Does traditional TV really want less immediate buzz by having its “earned media” -- the press, social media content -- delay writing about stuff? Perhaps other next-day data might be a better idea.

4 comments about "Strategy: Wait For All Ratings - And Lose Some Program Buzz?".

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Douglas Ferguson from College of Charleston, October 8, 2015 at 8:20 p.m.
I think the water cooler effect died a long time ago with the demise of linear viewing. The concept of "last night" is pretty shaky when viewers stockpile scripted shows for times when nothing "live" is on. With all the shows, there's no time to sample everything except for curiosity.
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Ed Papazian from Media Dynamics Inc, October 9, 2015 at 6:44 a.m.

Douglas, since the vast majority of primetime viewing---including those wonderful "Millennials"--- is still done on a live basis, the real reason for lower sampling rates for the new shows is more channels to watch, including SVOD, as well as the varying quality of the shows, how well they are promoted, etc.

The "demise" of "linear TV", that you and others keep telling us has already happened, has little to do with it as the vast majority of broadcast network viewers are over the age of 50, who just adore old fashioned TV. As for luring those perky "Millennials" back into the fold, I doubt that this is a wise strategy for the broadcast networks----even if it was possible---as this population segment is notorious for its lack of staying power. I'm sure that most of them, if not all of them, are simply gobbling up tons of free "content" on their smartphones and, of course, YouTube's user-generated videos. How can the networks hope to compete with such enticing fare?

Stan Valinski from Multi-Media Solutions Group, October 9, 2015 at 1:19 p.m.

As one who uses ratings for both short term and long term goals it is no longer as issue. As we depend on ratings for accuracy in defining the WHOLE and ENTIRE audiance delivery of our messages it is now a moot point. The masses have changed viewing habits....forever. Even us baby boomers now watch everything except sports and news on some sort of delay. Albeit much may be same night but to avoid commercials most watch from their recorded content "collecton". So live without the plus anything is simply antiquated and more importantly inaccurate as a true number.

Ed Papazian from Media Dynamics Inc, October 9, 2015 at 7:39 p.m.

Agreed, Stan, though, to be accurate, most viewing, including that done by "Boomers", is still done "live". Nevertheless, all viewers should be counted ---if possible---at least on an in-home basis. As for out-of-home, this is not going to be as easy as one may think, due to important questions about survey methodology and viewer attentiveness.