• by Sarah Mahoney  @mahoney_sarah, August 29, 2023

Hoka is coming in hot for back-to-school.

School is back in session, and there are some shake-ups going on in Sneakerville. Stifel just released its 16^th annual Back-to-School analysis of athletic footwear. And while Nike remains the king, queen and emperor of sneaker sales, its dominance faded as other brands caught consumers' attention.

Nike styles were cited as the most popular by 88% of the retail channels Stifel monitors, down by 4.1 points from last year's survey. And while other brands are small by comparison, they're gaining faster. New Balance, for example, burst onto the scene, named most popular by 7%.

Adidas fell 4.5 points, named most popular by less than 1%.

Nike's strength came from continued demand for basketball shoes, with retro styles like Air Force 1, Jordan 1, and Dunk continuing. But retro running shoes, including the Air Max 90 and 97, are fading.

To track sales, a team led by Jim Duffy, an analyst at Stifel who follows Nike and other athletic brands and retailers, called on 110 stores, including Dick's, Academy, Foot Locker, Finish Line, Champs, and Hibbett Sports. Stifel asked about the most popular style references, as well as mentions of other popular styles. The team tabulated the results by brand, retailer and gender.

"Nike's DTC shift is becoming more apparent with fewer in-store most popular style references," he writes. "Nike's shift from the wholesale channel has created an opportunity for other brands to take shelf space and gain mind share."

Nike’s four-point decline in popularity mainly stemmed from New Balance's strength in Foot Locker stores, Hoka and On's popularity in sporting stores, and Crocs' strength in mall-based channels. And Nike now accounts for just 64% of sales at Foot Locker, down from 69% last year.

Duffy adds that On and Hoka's growing popularity proves both brands, which have soared in demand among serious runners, "are expanding beyond the performance running heritage and gaining credibility with younger, lifestyle-oriented consumers."

Low tops are gaining share, and other shifts include a new interest in suede. Popular options include Hoka's Clifton L Suede and Vans' latest Sport Low line.

But as consumers fret about their bank accounts, Stifel also detected more promotional pricing activity.

Foot Locker's latest earnings report shows the impact of consumer cutbacks, with sales in the second quarter falling almost 10%. And while rival Dick's recently reported a slight uptick in sales in July, the early going of the BTS season, Foot Locker saw the reverse.

"We did see a softening in trends in July and are adjusting our 2023 outlook to allow us to best compete for price-sensitive consumers," says Mary Dillon, president and chief executive officer, in its financial announcement.

The New York-based retailer says sales sank 9.9% to $1.86 billion, compared with sales of $2.01 billion in the second quarter of 2022. The company posted a loss of $5 million, compared with net income of $94 million in the year-ago period.

It now expects sales for the full year to drop between 8 and 9%.