• by Wayne Friedman , October 21, 2015

Social media platforms will rise to a 5% share of all TV marketing dollars in 2016 and 2017 -- climbing to 10% in 2018, 2019 and 2020, according to The Diffusion Group, a research and advisory firm focused on media. The report says budgets will increase between 2018 and 2020 as a result of the growth of over-the-top (OTT) platforms to promote shows.

“Social is going to become the new tune-in driver,” Alan Wolk, senior analyst for The Diffusion Group, tells Media Daily News.

In 2021, TV marketing budgets will begin to stabilize and then decline in terms of share of dollars to social media platforms. According to the report, this will occur because “TV separate from social media will be a strange notion, as TV and social will be so intimately entwined that viewers will not be able to see the distinction.”

Research estimates, according to other sources, are that each of the big four TV networks can spend $20 million to $30 million in off-air marketing for TV shows for the start of the fall season.

The Diffusion Group report suggests that Facebook will become the big player for all things related to social TV because its census-level user base data will attract TV network dollars -- paid advertising to promote programming.

It also sees newer social media platforms gaining ground for TV marketers. Instagram will see users spending 18% more time on the social media platform in 2025 than today. Tumblr will rise 10%, with Snapchat getting the largest gain -- 36% in nine years.

Because fewer TV viewers will watch linear/live TV programming, the Diffusion Group also expects that Twitter -- which has strong real-time viewer usage -- will fall out of favor.