• by Joe Mandese  @mp_joemandese, March 11, 2024

The national linear TV advertising marketplace declined 7% during the fourth quarter of 2023 compared with the same quarter in 2022, according to estimates released late last week by Guideline.

The analysis shows demand eroding especially for conventional entertainment programming, which saw ad revenue fall 16% year-over-year vs. live sports, which experienced a gain of 3.2%. Within live sports, high-demand fourth quarter NFL programming jumped 22% in ad revenue.

Among key ad categories, only pharmaceutical boosted ad spending on national linear TV outlets, up 3.5% vs. the fourth quarter of 2022.

“The fourth quarter of 2023 represented a microcosm of the U.S. National Linear TV landscape," observed Guideline Insights Director Nicole McCurnin, adding, "Live sports ad revenue and market share alike crested, thanks to the NFL, while entertainment programming waned to a trough, amid a challenging climate of labor strikes and streaming services.”

Based on Guideline's U.S. Ad Market Tracker, the national TV advertising market index fell to its lowest December ever at the end of 2023 -- an 87.48, down 16% from 104.15 in December 2017, the first year Guideline began tracking it (see national TV tab below).