• by Sarah Mahoney  @mahoney_sarah, December 9, 2015

Holiday shopping results, so far, are looking solid, reflecting the moderate gains (between 3 and 4%) that most forecasters are predicting. And yet they’ve been quirky, too, with Black Friday foot traffic reported to be down, with transaction size — and online sales — climbing higher. Tom McGee, CEO of the International Council of Shopping Centers, says it is all about the convergence of different channels, and gives Marketing Daily his take on how consumers are changing the way they shop during the holidays.

Q. So what is your assessment of how shopping centers fared Thanksgiving weekend, with a little less foot traffic?

A. Well, first, the traffic numbers that have been reported are just estimates. And if you talk to our members, they say traffic was actually quite robust. And while online sales are gaining, it’s important to remember they are still very small, with 94% of all purchases still happening in a physical location. But I think we’re moving into an age with a different story line, which is all about convergence. And the shopping center is the hub. So I think foot traffic is a sort of analog measurement.

Q. Explain that, please.

A. More starts online, but of those who shopped on Thanksgiving and/or Black Friday, 80% made a purchase at a physical store. On Black Friday, for example, about one in three people made a “click and collect” purchase. And once they were in the store retrieving those purchases, 58% bought additional items. So technology is factoring more prominently into retail, yes. But it’s no different than any other industry — tech is being more fully integrated into everything we do, whether it’s the way we drive cars or the way we shop.

Q. So we saw more shopping earlier in November. Why is the season lengthening?

A. People are better informed. And as a result, Black Friday isn't as relevant as it once was. And yet we’ve seen the average size of transactions increase, and sales are higher overall, because people are using tech for research. They are more purposeful and efficient. But it’s important to point out it’s lengthening the other way, too, and I don’t think people should forget that the majority of shopping happens later in the season.

Q. Why is that, if the Web has allowed people to be so much better informed?

A. Sometimes procrastination, and sometimes they are waiting for better deals. But also, people love to shop — for many people, joining in the crowds is an important part of the holidays. It’s about the experience — Santa, decorations, shop windows.

Q. Are stores providing better experiences?

A. Yes, you’re starting to see changes in mall footprints, with more restaurants and entertainment and service centers. They’re trying to be a hub for people’s lives.