• by Wayne Friedman , November 6, 2023

AMC Networks, a mid-sized cable and streaming TV network group, will continue to have a rough road for the remainder of the year and into 2024, according to analysts.

Following up on its recently announced 18% decline in U.S. advertising revenue in the third quarter to $147 million, UBS Research now estimates that for the full year of 2023, AMC Networks will tumble 20% to $630 million.

John Hodulik, media analyst for UBS, says advertising trends will remain challenging in the fourth quarter, even as company executives say digital platforms and efforts are improving. 

One positive element, the company says, is AMC Networks content being featured in sharply rising FAST platforms (Free Advertising Supported Television), as well as a new ad-tier option from its streaming service, AMC+.

AMC also says its recently announced ability to allow brands to make programmatic buying for its linear TV inventory is good news.

AMC’s third-quarter decline is largely attributable to a decline in original hours versus a year ago -- a period that included the series finale of a big AMC show “Better Call Saul”

Hodulik says Nielsen C3 ratings are expected to crater for the rest of the year, trending down 24% year-over-year, compared to the decline of 22% in the third quarter.

Things may not get better next year. “Even with a much easier comparison than 2023 we still see challenges for both advertising and distribution revenues into 2024,” writes Robert Fishman, media analyst for MoffettNathanson Research. “A reduced content slate weighed 2023’s advertising numbers and 2024 will likely have even fewer original programming hours.”

He adds: “A rebound in the ad market would add upside to our numbers, but as things stand, AMC Networks has a tough hand competing for ad dollars with its general entertainment lineup.”